Taking a pause from the newsletter
28 May 2020 I’ve been posting infrequently in recent week for two reasons. First, following a very nice break after my last professional role, during which we moved back to Europe and took several months off as a family, I’ve now started a new role that is consuming all of the time, and more, that…
Ninth weekly Sunday off-the-record chat with experts
17 May 2020 Each Sunday, a friend organises a two-hour call for friends (many of whom are senior figures from finance, industry, and academia) to hear 10-15 experts talk about the COVID-19 crisis. This has now grown to 500-1,000+ attendees, with a consistently all-star cast of speakers drawn from many different fields. Tonight’s installment, the…
Eighth weekly Sunday off-the-record chat with experts
10 May 2020 Each Sunday, a friend organises a two-hour call for friends (many of whom are senior figures from finance, industry, and academia) to hear 10-15 experts talk about the COVID-19 crisis. This has now grown to 500-1,000+ attendees, with a consistently all-star cast of speakers drawn from many different fields. Tonight’s installment, the…
Seventh weekly Sunday off-the-record chat with experts
3 May 2020 Each Sunday, a friend organises a two-hour call for friends (many of whom are senior figures from finance, industry, and academia) to hear 10-15 experts talk about the COVID-19 crisis. This has now grown to more than 1,000 attendees, with a consistently all-star cast of speakers drawn from many different fields. Tonight’s…
Yes, COVID-19 really is dangerous
29 April 2020 There’s a persistent, recurrent idea out there that COVID-19 isn’t really that dangerous after all, and that we are taking economic pain unnecessarily. I won’t wade into the important and difficult debate about what the right tradeoffs are between minimizing excess deaths and minimizing economic pain, a debate that is becoming more…
Sixth weekly Sunday off-the-record chat with experts
26 April 2020 Each Sunday, a friend organises a two-hour call for friends (many of whom are senior figures from finance, industry, and academia) to hear 10-15 experts talk about the COVID-19 crisis. This has now grown to more than 1,000 attendees, with a consistently all-star cast of speakers drawn from many different fields. Tonight’s…
Estimating the effective reproduction number; looking ahead
21 April 2020 Here are some of the most interesting posts, articles, papers, and resources I’ve come across recently, organised by theme. How close are we to R=1? You’ve probably heard about the basic reproduction number by now, R0 (R-naught). This is the average number of people infected by each infected individual a situation in…
Fifth weekly Sunday off-the-record chat with experts
19 April 2020 (minor typos corrected 20 April) Each Sunday, a friend organises a two-hour call for friends (many of whom are senior figures from finance, industry, and academia) to hear 10-15 experts talk about the COVID-19 crisis. This has now grown to more than 1,000 attendees, with a consistently all-star cast of speakers drawn…
A seductive idea that’s probably (but not definitely) false
It’s unlikely, but not impossible, that many or most people have already been infected 16 April 2020 (minor updates 17 April 2020) Contagious (and possibly dangerous) memes Many false and/or dangerous memes have spread about coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and COVID-19. These include that 5G cell phone towers cause COVID-19, that people of certain ethnic backgrounds don’t…
Fourth weekly Sunday off-the-record chat with experts
12 April 2020 Each Sunday, a friend organises a two-hour call for friends (many of whom are senior figures from finance, industry, and academia) to hear 10-15 experts talk about the COVID-19 crisis. This has now grown to hundreds of attendees, with a consistently all-star cast of speakers drawn from many different fields. Tonight’s installment,…
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Subjective Probability 