Hard choices

Original published 6 April 2020; updated 7 April 2020 to correct an error Exit strategy or roadmap to recovery? I wrote about exit strategies four days ago, on 2 April. In the last week, it seems like this has become a dominant topic of conversation in “quality” media. And no post I’ve written has generated

Updating priors; what are the exit strategies?

2 April 2020 Updating my priors I haven’t publicly updated the distribution of my current, subjective probabilities, against the three high-level scenarios I’ve previously described (which I call “expected, better, worse”), in a while. If you haven’t already read that post, you might want pause and skim through it to have context for what comes