Simple models really do work better (at least for now)

29 March 2020 I made the point a few days ago that extremely simple exponential curve-fitting has done astonishingly well in predicting the progression COVID-19. Adam Adamou, Director of the London Mathematical Laboratory, makes precisely the same point with rather more detail and sophistication: A few key points: Simple exponential models work well in the

In praise of simple models

26 March 2020 How well have naïve, simplistic models of the epidemic done? I’ve mentioned before that I am a great fan of Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting. One thing he argues is that many so-called expert forecasts are mealy-mouthed, in the sense that they are so vague as to give plenty of wiggle room. “The market