Hard choices

Original published 6 April 2020; updated 7 April 2020 to correct an error Exit strategy or roadmap to recovery? I wrote about exit strategies four days ago, on 2 April. In the last week, it seems like this has become a dominant topic of conversation in “quality” media. And no post I’ve written has generated

What do we know about the degree of underreporting of COVID-19?

Last updated: 31 March; first posted: 24 March 2020 One acute contributor to uncertainty in this crisis is that we really don’t know how many people currently have, or have previously had, COVID-19. First, some definitions. A confirmed case is, or should be, “a person with laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection” (as defined in WHO